Will Nico Rosberg continue his title-challenge in Monaco?

Nico Rosberg got back into the winning form in the Spanish GP. He got the pole and cruised to victory. His effort was helped by Ferrari’s Sebastien Vettel who passed Lewis Hamliton in the start. After Hamilton got his second place back, he showed frustration after he was told by his team that Rosberg was too far ahead. That did not go down too well with Hamilton, and he kept pushing, and sliced seconds from Rosberg’s lead – but the German was too far in front and had the pace to respond. After the race Hamilton said he ignored team’s instructions to make sure they will not tell him to stop racing in the future. Hamilton’s reaction is understandable for a racing driver, but since the number of engines is limited, stressing the engine in vain was not the smartest thing to do. It also tells that the tensions are rising in Mercedes. And that promises a good show for the spectators in Monaco.

The overused expression tells us the Grand Prix of Monaco is the crown jewel of Formula 1. A cliché maybe, but it is true. No other race has the glamour as the street race of Monte Carlo. It is a race drivers want to win and a victory in Monaco means more than in any other race – except in Spa and Silverstone, perhaps. Monaco also allows the fans to see a glimpse of the glamour and jet set which is associated with the world of F1. It creates an illusion and gives a chance to be a part of that world: via TV and only for a moment, but still. 

Yet the fact is that for the people in F1 Monaco is a challenge like any other GP, despite the glamour surrounding it. In fact, teams and their equipment must fit into a smaller area than in a normal race track and that creates its own problems to overcome. 

The track itself is old-fashioned, even dangerous, compared to modern F1 tracks. Despite this, or maybe because of it, most of the drivers enjoy the challenge. The track can be called “the track of champions”: Monaco has been in Formula 1 championship 62 times and 39 times it has been won by a driver who became a champion in his career. Rosberg, a winner in 2013 and 2014, will try to increase that percentage at the end of this year by winning the title. In Monaco, like in all races, he will face a tough challenge from determined Hamilton, who has promised he won’t let Rosberg repeat his “error” in qualifying  – which destroyed Hamilton’s last attempt in qualifying last year. This year Hamilton will be the Mercedes driver who is running first in the last minutes of qualifying. It will be interesting to see if Hamilton will make a similar “error” in qualifying if he is sitting on the pole position before the last attempts.

Monaco tends to level the playingfield, since the superiority of the car doesn’t play so big role in a street track. This is why one can expect talented drivers to shine, even in a less capable car. It will be interesting to see if Ferrari can challenge Mercedes and how will McLaren-Honda preform in Monaco. And in case of a rainy GP, anything is possible. Just ask Olivier Panis who won the Monaco GP in 1996 with Ligier-team.

Nico Rosberg must improve - and fast

Tensions between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg are running high. After the Chinese Grand Prix, Rosberg, who finished behind his team-mate, accused Hamilton for being selfish and making his race difficult. Hamilton, who won the event, controlled his pace during the race, and was driving too slowly – according to Rosberg. This opened a chance for Ferrari’s Sebastien Vettel to catch and try to pass Rosberg. Hamilton’s reply was a chilling one; he told it was not his job to look after Nico’s race. Harsh but true. Nico must raise his game.

Rosberg’s frustration is understandable. Hamilton has taken three poles and two wins in the first three races. The edge Nico had over Hamilton in qualifying in last year seems to have vanished. In addition, he has been unable to beat Hamilton in a race this year. Rosberg’s compatriot Sebastien Vettel won the race in Malaysia and is mixing up the title fight. If Ferrari poses a serious threat to Mercedes this year, Mercedes may have to re-think their driver politics: Nico may have to play a supporting role for Lewis. So far, this is not the case.

Nico needs to regain his confidence. Losing the title last year must have been a hard hit – especially since he was leading the championship for so long. In Hamliton’s case, the title boosted his confidence which seems to be unbreakable at the moment. Nico made crucial errors in races last year – one notable was his error in Austin, which allowed Hamilton to pass him in the race. First step for Nico in his comeback is to regain his edge in qualifying. This will be difficult, since it seems Hamilton has improved in qualifying – as he vowed before the start of this season. If everything comes together, Nico is able to beat Lewis, as he showed in Brazilian GP last year. The problem in Nico’s case seems to be Lewis’s confidence: after the Chinese GP he told he had some extra speed in case he had needed it. This may or may not be true, but it is clear Hamilton is playing mind games with Nico – in order to win again, he must ignore all that kind of comments.

Nico will have his chance soon – the next GP will be driven in Bahrain next weekend. Last year the Mercedes drivers offered a thrilling battle for the win and it was the race that really launched the duel between Hamilton and Rosberg for the title. Nico is undoubtedly keen for a payback after finishing second last year.

However, Bahrain might not be a two horse race: the temperatures will be higher than in China and Ferrari has an edge in terms of consuming tires, as it demonstrated in Malaysian GP. In raw speed Mercedes is ahead, but if Ferrari can exploit the tire advantage by making one pit stop less in the race, we might see another Ferrari-win. That would mix up the situation and offer more interesting championship for the fans.

Formula 1 circus 2015

The wait is almost over and the engines will be fired up in Melbourne this weekend. Formula 1 circus  begins again. As always, there are many questions before the season and endless speculation. I thought to offer some of my thoughts about the upcoming season.

Mercedes 

It is probably safe to say that Mercedes will be ahead of the other teams. There is not much point drawing far reaching conclusions from the winter tests, because we don’t know the exact fuel loads or how many revs teams took out of the engines and so on. Despite this, I don’t think Mercedes has lost its lead over the winter. It seems the title fight will be between the Mercedes drivers. Recent F1 Racing (March 2015) stated that if Mercedes is way ahead of the rest of the field, it will be tougher for Nico Rosberg to beat Lewis Hamilton: in this case Nico can’t count on other teams to take points away from his team-mate. That is true, but if Nico can keep his edge over Hamilton in qualifying and improve his race performance, he will be a tough challenger. Nico has also shown his … drive (let’s put it that way) to win, as we saw in Monaco and Spa last year. Nevertheless, my money is on Hamilton. If he can get his qualifying together (he admitted in F1 Racing’s interview getting his set-up wrong many times last year before qualifying and promised to work on it) and start races on pole, it will mean Nico has a mountain to climb on Sundays. In mental side, Nico might have the edge in (based on 2014), but if Lewis stays focused and is not distracted either on- or off-track issues, I would bet my money on Hamilton.

Williams

Williams returned to the top of the grid in 2014 and Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa scored podiums. It is probably safe to assume the new Williams will be at least as competitive as its predecessor. According to Hamilton, seems that Williams copied Mercedes’ suspension from 2014 – but Mercedes has changed that for this year. Mercedes engine was miles ahead of the rest in 2014 and it is very likely it still is the best engine out there. But having a Mercedes engine doesn’t guarantee anything – just think about McLaren in 2014. 

My own prediction is Williams will win a race or two this year, either by Bottas or Massa, maybe even by both of them. Massa is on a high after successful last races of 2014 and that momentum will carry him in Australia. But if he gets disappointing results in first races, then he might get lost again. Massa has always been a driver by the mood: if he has the feeling (with the car and otherwise), he is as fast as anyone out there (at least prior to Hungary 2009; although personally I don’t think he lost any speed because of the accident, the problems in Ferrari were due being a team-mate of Fernando Alonso). Bottas has the attitude and talent to be a world champion. He will probably have a slight edge on Massa, but if the 2015 car is to Massa’s liking, Valtteri must stay alert.

Ferrari

After disastrous 2014, the only way is a way up for Ferrari. The arrival of Sebastien Vettel is a big boost for the team and the changes in the team will – hopefully – lead Ferrari closer to its normal form. F1 Racing (March 2015) reported that sources inside Ferrari claim that the team had improved the engine to the tune of 50bhp in the winter and it might have been increased to 80bph before the start of season. Last year Ferrari was behind Mercedes by about 40bhp. If this is true, it would mean Ferrari are on the same level as Mercedes, even if Mercedes would be able to find new 40-60bhp. When will Ferrari take all out of the engine then? That is the question, as we are now informed that Ferrari will take more "conservative engine" to Melborne.

Kimi Räikkönen is on a positive note when it comes to the new Ferrari. The car responds to his driving, so we can expect to see old Kimi back this year. Vettel is clearly a fast driver – when the car fits his style. But he was unable to match Daniel Ricciardo last year, because the rear part was not as responsive (because the rule changes) as in earlier Red Bulls. When the car doesn’t fit his style, Vettel is not as brilliant. Early 2012 Mark Webber was able to match and beat Vettel – until the updates fixed the car to Vettel’s liking. Kimi Räikkönen might not have the edge he had in his McLaren days, but I am sure he will offer a good challenge to Vettel – and will outpace the four times champion multiple times this year.

Red Bull

I became a Daniel Ricciardo-fan in 2014. The way he outpaced Vettel and took three wins compared to Vettel’s zero was amazing and – let’s be honest about this – put Vettel’s performance into question. Yes, Vettel dominated Webber (except 2010) and won four titles in a row, you don’t do that without a remarkable talent. But how good is Vettel? His championship winning cars were designed by Adrian Newey and were clearly the best of the field. In 2014, when the car did not suit Vettel’s style, the new boy from Australia came and took the team by storm – and Vettel left for Ferrari. Sure, Vettel might have had motivation problems and there may be many other things we outsiders don’t know. But now Daniel is the king of Red Bull. He has shown his racing skills both in strategically smart driving against Mercedes and in wheel-to-wheel racing (against Alonso in Austin, turn 1, 2014). If Red Bull-Renault is even close to Mercedes, expect Daniel to take more than three wins this year.

McLaren

From the beginning I thought Alonso & Jenson Button pairing would be perfect for McLaren Honda: two experienced drivers who will score points and give important feedback to engineers. All credit to Kevin Magnussen, but his day will come later. Now I should confess my bias: I think Fernando Alonso is the best driver out there. Maybe in raw speed Hamilton is ahead of him, but in terms of race craft and else: Alonso is the most complete driver out there. He should have won the title in 2012 and I personally think it will be a great injustice if he doesn’t get his third title befoere he calls a day on his career. Yes, he failed in his attempt to bring world championship to Maranello and it is argued he did not develop the car to the right direction in Ferrari. And, for sure, the atmosphere in Ferrari wasn’t the best possible as Alonso was eying more competitive drives and finally left the team. 

But all that is past now as he is back at McLaren. The winter tests indicate a difficult start for the season, especially as Alonso will not be in Melbourne due his testing accident (it is pointless to speculate what happened and why, let’s just hope Alonso is fine and will be behind the wheel as soon as it is safely possible). But, the situation is not as dark as it might appear: according to F1 Racing, Alonso set a purple sector time in Jerez, when he was lapping on intermediates at the same time as Rosberg in a Mercedes – and the Spaniard did not lose much ground to Nico. Furthermore, Newey’s right-hand man Peter Prodromou (he knows the secrets of Red Bull) is at McLaren and F1Racing spotted similarities between the new McLaren MP4-30 and old Red Bull cars: the start of the front wing has multi-element design, aimed at consistent stable downforce. The nose is also similar to Red Bull designs. So, I make my prediction: McLaren is not as bad as it looks in the tests. It will take time, but by the end of the season, they are fighting for the podiums. Jenson Button is also positive about the chances, as ESPN F1 reported: he thinks McLaren MP4-30 has the ingredients to be the best McLaren he has driven since joining the team in 2010, but admits there is lots of work to be done. 

There you have it, in short, my views on the top teams. Time to turn eyes to Melbourne!

“Le cirque est plein, c'est jour de fête !”

New rules are a boost to World Rally Championship

Rally of Sweden was driven in the last weekend. The rally turned out to be one of the most exciting and dramatic rallies for a while. Lots of this is thanks to the new rules which were introduced for 2015. 

First “victim” of these rules was Volkwagen’s Jari-Matti Latvala. He was in a tight battle against his team-mate Sébastien Ogier who was leading the rally. Both went off the road in the same stage: Ogier had a spin and was off from Latvala’s pace by some 30 seconds. Had it been season 2014, Latvala would have been given information about Ogier’s problems. But this is 2015. The rules now ban giving split-time information to the drivers. This is why Latvala had no idea that he was practically in the lead and kept pushing – and went off the road right before the end of the stage and lost over 8 minutes. His battle for win was over.

The new rules also say that the championship leader must be first on the road on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday the order will be reversed. This is a huge disadvantage for the championship leader in most cases. One can say that the rule is not fair: it punishes the driver who has done the best job – on the other hand, it makes the rallies more exciting. This is what we saw in Sweden. The victory battle went down to the wire and on last stage Andreas Mikkelsen, Ogier and Thierry Neuville all had a chance to claim victory. The last stage was full of drama as Mikkelsen had a spin and he lost his small lead and Ogier claimed the victory – despite driving in difficult road position in first days. Battles like these are what WRC needs!

Next event will be in Mexico and Ogier will suffer from being first on the road in this gravel rally. This opens the door to rivals, such as Latvala, Neuville, Mikkelsen. But there are more challengers who have a good road position for the first days: Mads Ostberg, Kris Meeke and Dani Sordo. It is difficult to draw conclusions based only on Monte Carlo and Sweden, but it appears that Citroen and Hyundai have developed their cars well and are now – thanks to the running order too – in a position they can actually challenge the Volkswagens. Ford will get its updates later this spring and Hyundai will introduce next version of their rally car. Keeping all this in mind, it is very likely that we see winners outside Volkswagen team this year. If I were to bet, I would place my money on Meeke, Neuville and Sordo.

Toyota's comeback is essential for WRC's future

On 30th of January 2015, Toyota announced it will make a much anticipated return to WRC in 2017. Cologne-based Toyota Motorsport GmbH will develop Yaris WRC during the next two seasons. The testing, at the moment anyway, will be made by Stephane Sarrazin, Sebastian Lindholm and Eric Camilli.

This is great news for the sport. World rally championship has been a playfield for few teams in recent years. First for Citroën & Ford and now the field is dominated by Volkswagen team. Ford and Citroën are still there but Ford is not a factory team anymore and Citroën has its main focus on WTCC. But there's also Hyundai, a factory team from Korea.

One can guess that Toyota's return was partly inspired by Hyundai team and its comeback to WRC. Hyundai's project has already brought a one-two win, brought by Thierry Neuville and Dani Sordo in Germany last year. Toyota and Hyundai compete in Asian car markets and Toyota's return brings the competition to rally roads. The comeback also rises the profile of Toyota brand.

Toyota has a glorious history in rallying. Toyota Team Europe, led by Ove Andersson, won driver's championship with Carlos Sainz (1990 & 1992), Juha Kankkunen (1993), Didier Auriol (1994) and the team won manufacturers championship in 1993, 1994 and 1999. In those succesful years, Toyota developed rallying cars from Celica and Corolla models. Although Corolla WRC was getting out-dated in 1999, the team won the manufacturers championship in its final year. 

Despite this, Toyota had already other plans and it left WRC and moved to Formula 1 - in order to find a bigger arena to showcase its technological skills and raise brand's status. Toyota's F1 project turned out to be less successful: team did not win any race and its best result was 4th place in the championship in 2005 season. Toyota left F1 after season 2009 and since that it has not been involved in high-profile championships, although it has participated, for example, in LeMans 24 hour race and other endurance championships.

Rallying brings Toyota back to its roots. Toyota also increases the profile of WRC: if everything goes well, in 2017 world rally championship will have at least three factory-supported teams: Volkswagen, Hyundai and Toyota. The problem for WRC has been the lack of teams (and the domination of Sébastien Loeb). Now, as Loeb has retired, rallying has been dominated by another Frenchman, Sébastien Ogier. But if the Asian challengers, Hyundai and Toyota, will be able to pose a serious challenge to VW dominance, will the interest and appeal of WRC raise again. And not least because of the return of the iconic rally team.

 

Carlos Sainz & Luis Moya in Monte Carlo Rallye 1999, the first rally of Toyota's last season in WRC, before its comeback 2017. (photo from Wikimedia) 

Monte Carlo 2015

World Rally Championship 2015 begins this week in Monte Carlo. The legendary event will also see the return of Sébastien Loeb and this is by far the most interesting aspect of this year's event. For the first time after a long time we will have two drivers in a same rally who have won the title. Ogier, the only regular title-winning driver of WRC in 2015, will surely see Loeb's challenge as an extra motivation to win, given their tense relationship at Citroën in 2011. 

Volkswagen Polo WRC is clearly the best car of WRC, but the changing conditions of Monte Carlo will level the playingfield. One tyre choise gone wrong can drop a driver from the lead to 8th. The conditions can change during one stage from dry asphalt to snow and propably for the most of the time drivers are on wrong tyres. One must drive with caution and thinking, flat out approach will lead into trouble. One right tyrechoise can also put a drive up on the leaderboard, as for example François Delecour showed in 2011, when Monte was a non-WRC event. The changing conditions and stages at night make Monte Carlo an event which is takes us closer to the old days of rallying when events were long and stages at night were a regular challenge to face.

Besides the French Sébastiens, one can expect to see good preformances from Hyundai-duo Thierry Neuville (although Monte isn't his favourite event) and Dani Sordo (especially if most of the stages are dry asphalt), Brian Bouffier (Ford) and Chris Meeke of Citroën (3rd last year). For Jari-Matti Latvala this is an event in which he should consentrate on finishing in the points, since he is propably the only real challenger for Ogier this year, although the running order regulation will level the playingfield for cars behind Volkswagens.

One to watch is the French legend Delecour, who will participate this year's Monte with  Porsche 997 RGT in his own class, and is surely spectacular to watch - and listen in post-stage interviews.

Farewell to Mikko Hirvonen

Wales 2009. The engine of Ford Focus WRC is roaring in the forest. The rain hits the ground and makes the road even more treacherous. Despite this, Mikko Hirvonen is on a charge. The world title is at stake. He must defeat Sébastien Loeb's time. Ford storms over every chrest and through every corner on the limit, but finally, the limit is crossed: heavy landing breaks the bonnet and Hirvonen must stop on the stage for a minute. The fight is over, Loeb takes the title.

This is the closest Hirvonen got to the title, but despite this, he can walk out of WRC his head held high. Four runners-up places and 15 rally wins in WRC are more than most drivers ever achieve.

Like many top Finnish WRC drivers, Hirvonen was managered by Timo Jouhki, who had spotted the skilled driver in Finnish rally championship back in 2001. Mikko showed promising speed in a two-wheel car and in 2003 he was a member of Malcolm Wilson´s Ford WRC team, a team where he was destined to spend most of his career. After a short stint in Subaru alongside world champion Petter Solberg, he was not offered a new deal. He had to convince the WRC teams again.

Its not a surprise that Mikko did it with Ford in 2005. After impressive speed in Acropolis, he was chosen for the factory team for Rally Finland where he finished as the best Ford-driver. Podium in an asphalt rally in Catalonya sealed the factory drive for 2006 with Ford.

In 2006 and 2007 Mikko supported Marcus Grönholm's title challenge. In 2006 and 2007 the pair brought the manufacturers' championship to Ford and Mikko scored his first win in Australia 2006. After 2007 Grönholm called a day on his career and Mikko's big moment arrived: he would lead the team's challenge against Loeb and Citroën.

Finally, it was only one man who stood between Mikko and the ultimate triumph. Loeb was unbeatable in seasons 2008-2011. The fight was closest in 2009 and Citroën needed teamorders in Rally of Poland to fight off Mikko's title challenge. Finally Mikko lost the title by one point at the end of the season.

For 2012 Hirvonen made a surprise move to Citroën as Loeb's team-mate. When the nine-times world champion retired at the end of 2012, many believed Mikko's moment had finally arrived. But in 2013 nothing seemed to work and the championship had a new fast Sébastien: Ogier in the new Volkswagen team. Ogier and VW were unbeatable.

For 2014 the circle closed as Mikko returned to Ford for his final season. In the last two rallies, Mikko showed his speed was still there: he finished 3rd in Catalonya and Rally of Wales was like an enbodiment of his career: he beat the other drivers finishing second, but one fast French Sébastien won the event - this time it was Ogier.

Thank you for these years Mikko!